The SpaceX IPO may be pitched as the moonshot of the decade, but Wall Street’s “biggest IPO ever” script usually has a funny way of making issuers, insiders, and underwriters rich before ordinary long-term buyers get their turn. In our latest contrarian breakdown, we look past the confetti and ask the only question that matters: who is this deal really for? From first-day IPO pops to lockup expirations, thin floats, and the ugly history of marquee listings, this is a reminder that the smartest move may be skipping the launch-day circus and waiting for the post-hype hangover.

Willamette Valley Vineyards’ latest East Coast distribution reshuffle was presented as a growth initiative, but distributor RNDC’s ongoing collapse makes WVVI look materially riskier than management’s recent press releases suggest. The company aligned distribution in New York and parts of the Mid-Atlantic with Republic National Distributing Company in February 2026 even though RNDC had already shown signs of stress in key markets, making the decision look less like opportunistic expansion and more like a gamble with counterparty risk.

Kraft Heinz is not a glamour story - and that may be the point. The latest quarter showed a business still generating strong free cash flow, protecting a 6%+ dividend, improving share trends, and redirecting energy away from corporate breakup theatrics and back toward brand investment. With the split paused, Berkshire’s exit largely digested, and management focused on discipline, productivity, and long-term brand building, KHC remains a quietly compelling contrarian value case hiding in plain sight.

MGP Ingredients’ latest quarter looked ugly on the surface, but the headline loss was driven largely by non-cash write-downs rather than a collapse in cash earnings. With management reaffirming 2026 EBITDA and free cash flow guidance, tangible book value rising, and the stock trading near book value, MGPI may be offering investors a classic post-earnings value setup.

When the market counts a company down and out, we take a second look. AdvanSix Inc. (NYSE: ASIX) is currently trading as if it were going out of business, having shed over 44% of its value in the last year. The "smart money" has fled the building, spooked by a cyclical downturn in nylon and a messy quarter.

But at Woodworth, we don't buy the narrative; we buy the numbers. And the numbers tell us that ASIX is a fortress balance sheet trading at 0.54x Book Value (0.61x Tangible Book) with a hidden cash flow catalyst that the market is completely ignoring. This is a classic "stretched rubber band" scenario where sentiment has detached from math.

If you want to clear a room at a cocktail party in 2026, tell them you’re excited about an auto-parts supplier undergoing a "transformation" during an EV slowdown. If you want to clear the room even faster, mention that its revenue is down double-digits and it just missed earnings.

Enter Methode Electronics (MEI).

At first glance, MEI looks like a textbook value trap. The stock is down nearly 40% over the last year, hovering around $7.50. Wall Street has effectively ghosted the company, treating it like a legacy relic that got lost on the way to the electric vehicle revolution. The consensus view is simple: the EV transition is stalling, Methode’s sales are shrinking, and the turnaround is taking too long.

Bumble looks like another “dead app” stock at first glance—revenue rolling over, consensus price targets drifting down, and big tech funds ghosting it like a bad first date. Under the hood, it is a turnaround in mid‑flight: cutting costs hard, consolidating assets like Fruitz and Geneva, and putting the founder back in charge at a price that bakes in way more heartbreak than the current business performance justifies.​

This will be our first full article published in Seeking Alpha - take a look here and please vote at the bottom of the Seeking Alpha article that our analysis was compelling! We were impressed with the thorough nature of the publication process through Seeking Alpha and look forward to future research articles. Learn more about why MGP Ingredients is an undervalued gem.

MGPI looks like another dead whiskey stock — down 75% in two years, trading at a “liquidation” multiple, and tossed in the penalty box for an inventory glut the market assumes will never clear. Under the hood, it’s the opposite story: cash flow is up, the balance sheet is a fortress, competitors are going bankrupt, and MGPI has nearly $470M in liquidity to buy stills, barrels, and brands at fire-sale prices. This deep dive walks through why the brown-goods crash is a textbook inventory cycle, how three growth engines (Penelope, El Mayor, and Ingredients) are being valued at roughly zero, and why our conservative work points to 50–200%+ upside with limited downside if things go wrong. If you like capital-cycle setups where sentiment has totally detached from math, this is one of them.

As an Oregon-based hedge fund, we often get the opportunity to more closely investigate local companies that are otherwise too small to register on most firms’ radars.  Willamette Valley Vineyards (WVVI) is one of those companies.  As one of the largest corporate vineyards in the state and a big player in a currently-ailing industry (the kids just don’t drink how they used to), it has shown up on our equity value screen programs more than a few times.

Unfortunately, just appearing in a value search does not make a value company.  It is as much our job as managers to identify value traps as it is to pick out the potential true bargains.  The low valuation of current trading seems to be justified.  Let’s dig into why.

We at the Woodworth Contrarian Fund specialize in finding buying opportunities when the market is selling. This means buying early and selling early - if you wait for the last drop of blood, they’re already dead, so to speak.  Now with Q2 2026 Earnings in the rear view mirror, we think that this company is a classic contrarian value opportunity.