This month we revisit the original oil panic, the whiskey glut nobody noticed, homebuilders’ disappearing margins, the new WORM index for Oregon companies, and the only friend AI data centers really have - natural gas. In other words: 1970s stagflation, a hangover in a bourbon warehouse, housing builders racing each other to the bottom, and an energy transition that still quietly runs on methane. If you like panic, mispricing, and real assets that don’t care about your factor model, you’re in the right place. As a final note, the recent S&P rebalancing saw thirteen companies removed from the S&P 600 small cap index - three of them are current holdings. We like being part of the cast offs. This was even a signal to review each of the others as possible investment targets.

— Managing Partners Drew Millegan & Quinn Millegan

MGPI looks like another dead whiskey stock — down 75% in two years, trading at a “liquidation” multiple, and tossed in the penalty box for an inventory glut the market assumes will never clear. Under the hood, it’s the opposite story: cash flow is up, the balance sheet is a fortress, competitors are going bankrupt, and MGPI has nearly $470M in liquidity to buy stills, barrels, and brands at fire-sale prices. This deep dive walks through why the brown-goods crash is a textbook inventory cycle, how three growth engines (Penelope, El Mayor, and Ingredients) are being valued at roughly zero, and why our conservative work points to 50–200%+ upside with limited downside if things go wrong. If you like capital-cycle setups where sentiment has totally detached from math, this is one of them.

As an Oregon-based hedge fund, we often get the opportunity to more closely investigate local companies that are otherwise too small to register on most firms’ radars.  Willamette Valley Vineyards (WVVI) is one of those companies.  As one of the largest corporate vineyards in the state and a big player in a currently-ailing industry (the kids just don’t drink how they used to), it has shown up on our equity value screen programs more than a few times.

Unfortunately, just appearing in a value search does not make a value company.  It is as much our job as managers to identify value traps as it is to pick out the potential true bargains.  The low valuation of current trading seems to be justified.  Let’s dig into why.

This month’s Millegan Memo runs from Oregon dirt to Old Europe’s bond markets. On the company side, we walk through Helen of Troy’s “take your medicine” quarter, a local vineyard flagship that looks more like a capital structure problem than a bargain, and Stellantis, a misunderstood cash generator still priced like a restructuring project. On the macro and history side, we introduce the Woodworth Oregon Index and revisit the Peace of Westphalia to explain why the plumbing of institutions matters more to investors than whatever story is trending on financial TV.

- Managing Partners Drew Millegan & Quinn Millegan

We at the Woodworth Contrarian Fund specialize in finding buying opportunities when the market is selling. This means buying early and selling early - if you wait for the last drop of blood, they’re already dead, so to speak.  Now with Q2 2026 Earnings in the rear view mirror, we think that this company is a classic contrarian value opportunity.

Helen of Troy (HELE) is cheap, wheat commodity corners collapse in 1871, the Woodworth Fund releases its Q3 Newsletter, and the yield curve flips back. Different centuries, same story: the market always humbles someone.

- Managing Partners Drew Millegan & Quinn Millegan

The current U.S. Treasury yield curve presents a complex picture that, while sharing some similarities with the 2007 pre-recession environment, occurs within a markedly different economic context. Check out today’s analysis.

Kohl’s keeps cashing checks while analysts call it a meme, Nvidia finds out it’s not the only chip in town, and the jobs market cools just enough to make everyone equally nervous. This issue sees earnings beats, $10B mystery orders, and tariffs that hit everyone—unless you’re big enough to dodge them.

- Managing Partners Drew Millegan & Quinn Millegan

Exclusively republished report from our archives - relevant today.

It seems that time and time again - the Trump administration proposes removing the requirement for public companies to report quarterly, instead favoring the European/Chinese standard of reports every 6 months.

Pfizer might be a good deal even if Bobby Kennedy bans child vaccines, PPI is heating up despite its cousin CPI, and with enough influence you too can be exempt from Tariffs! A little delayed for July, but worth it all the same.

- Managing Partners Drew Millegan & Quinn Millegan

Your pockets are inflating (a little bit more than expected), Nike bounces on bad news, and the US Dollar made records (not necessarily good ones).

- Managing Partners Drew Millegan & Quinn Millegan

The US love-hate relationship with tariffs and market certainty, Abercrombie & Fitch is worth trying on (but it might not fit), and international trade (s)melt down. - Managing Partners Drew Millegan & Quinn Millegan

Your new Monday commute podcast - The Capital Call: with the Millegan Brothers and we explore Stellantis (formerly Fiat-Chrysler) and Moderna’s current value propositions in the market. - Managing Partners Drew Millegan & Quinn Millegan

Volatility is back and it’s provided more buying opportunities than capital - we highlighted RAIL and KSS which have interesting stories and are at even more interesting price levels with some insight into our investment process and contrarian philosophy. - Managing Partners Drew Millegan & Quinn Millegan

Intel’s potential breakup has the company poised for exciting times, Stellantis earnings show a strong balance sheet, and the yield curve partly inverts as recession fears loom. - Managing Partners Drew Millegan & Quinn Millegan

How stock pickers outperform the market, the Woodworth Contrarian Fund’s Q4 Newsletter, and the State of Greenland - Managing Partners Drew Millegan & Quinn Millegan

Brought to you by The Woodworth Contrarian Fund. Black Friday, an alternative measure of inflation, and Quinn calls in on Jim Cramer’s Lightning Round on his CNBC show Mad Money. Happy Holidays and Happy Friday the 13th.

Tariffs, The Election, and whether or not you can be a better investor by knowing the future. We decided to do something a little bit different this month. We have a few bite sized pieces on interesting topics that caught our eye as we look forward. We call it the Millegan Memo.

In between conversations with interested festival attendees, we conducted a poll of 58 willing participants as to their current feelings on the economy, as well as their own personal investments.  In exchange, participants received a free Woodworth-branded shot glass.  From this poll, a familiar trend emerged.

In the spirit of our upcoming sponsorship of the local Scottish Heritage Festival here in McMinnville, Oregon, we find ourselves thinking of Scotland, and the ways in which our own home half a world away has many parallels. Catch us at the McMinnville Scottish Festival October 5th & 6th.