The SpaceX IPO may be pitched as the moonshot of the decade, but Wall Street’s “biggest IPO ever” script usually has a funny way of making issuers, insiders, and underwriters rich before ordinary long-term buyers get their turn. In our latest contrarian breakdown, we look past the confetti and ask the only question that matters: who is this deal really for? From first-day IPO pops to lockup expirations, thin floats, and the ugly history of marquee listings, this is a reminder that the smartest move may be skipping the launch-day circus and waiting for the post-hype hangover.

Tesla’s still pretending it’s a tech company, Stellantis is still pretending it’s a cool name, and Elon’s reality show got picked up by the White House. We break down whether SpaceX could survive a government “upgrade,” how tariffs are the financial version of playing chicken with yourself, and why Stellantis might just be the least-loved bargain in autos (with Maserati-sized baggage).

Also on deck: the S&P crosses the big 6-handle, oil prices yawn their way higher, and Circle’s IPO drops — because what the stablecoin market needed was more hype. Plus, a surprisingly intelligent discussion on IPO timing, salespeople, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ slow-motion hiring freeze.